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Pan American Games to open in Chile with many athletes eyeing spots at Olympics_我的网站

A |     最新的一个引发广泛关注的现象，就是中国高超音速导弹鹰击-20的迅速扩散。这一武器的潜在影响，不仅关乎中国的战略布局，更可能对整个西太平洋地区的力量均衡产生深远的影响。    The Pan American Games open Friday in Chile's capital with more than 100 spots available for next year's Paris Olympics and the usual contest to see who will finish second behind the United States in the medals chart.More than 6,800 athletes from 41 countries and territories will compete in Santiago over 17 days. Competitors in 20 sports, including gymnastics, boxing and swimming, will be looking to directly qualify for the Olympics. Other sports will offer spots based on quotas, ranking points or minimum qualification standards.The Pan American Games, the largest multi-sport event in the Americas, are held every four years and precede the Olympics by a year. Santiago, where the streets have been rocked by protests in recent years, will debut as host. About 17,000 volunteers and 3,000 security officers will work at the event.If injuries don't get in the way, the U.S. team in Chile will include 93 Olympians and 32 Olympic medalists in a roster of 631 athletes. Of those, 318 are women and 313 are men. They will compete in 43 of the 46 sports.Brazil, Mexico and Canada are expected to fight for second place in the medals table. The three are bringing some of their biggest stars to the competition, including Brazilian gymnast Rebeca Andrade, Mexican diver Osmar Olvera and Canadian swimmer Maggie Mac Neil.American athletes will seek Olympic qualification in nine sports: breaking, boxing, gymnastics (rhythmic, trampoline), sport climbing, field hockey (men’s and women’s), modern pentathlon, artistic swimming, handball and water polo (men’s and women’s).Athletes in archery, diving, equestrian jumping, table tennis, sailing and shooting can secure quotas that will send them to Paris next year. Those competing in badminton, 3x3 basketball, cycling, taekwondo and triathlon can get ranking points that allow them to qualify. Track and field athletes and swimmers can also get minimum qualification standards for U.S. Olympic team trials.The U.S. team at the Pan American Games has 13 Olympic champions, including nine who won gold in Tokyo — six members of the women's water polo team, fencer Lee Kiefer, shooter Vincent Hancock and swimmer Brooks Curry.The other four won their Olympic titles prior to 2021, including Helen Maroulis and Kyle Snyder in wrestling, and Laura Kraut and McClain Ward in equestrian.Four years ago, the United States won 293 medals in Lima, Peru — 122 gold, 87 silver and 84 bronze. Brazil came in a distant second with 54 gold, 45 silver and 70 bronze. Mexico finished in third with 37 gold, 39 silver and 62 bronze, edging Canada with 35 gold, 65 silver and 52 bronze.As the Olympics did in Japan, the Pan American Games are seeking to reach a younger audience with new sports. Breaking, sport climbing and skateboarding will make their debuts at the event. The latter two have already had a first Olympic competition in Tokyo, while breaking will debut next year in Paris.The opening ceremony of the Pan American Games will take place on Friday at the 47,000-seat Estadio Nacional, around which six new venues for 30 sports were built with an investment of $507 million.Inaugurated in 1938, the Estadio Nacional held its first major sporting event in 1962 when Brazil beat Czechoslovakia 3-1 to win the World Cup title in soccer.Eleven years later, the stadium became a place of horror with extrajudicial killings and torture after the coup d’etat that ousted President Salvador Allende and led him to kill himself in 1973.“People will be surprised by how beautiful this National Stadium Park turned out,” Neven Ilic, the president of organizer Panam Sports, said last week. “All Chileans should feel proud of the level of the facilities and because they will be hosting a celebration never seen before in this country.”The Chilean government says the park that includes the stadium will be a place for the public to practice sports, play and walk as part of the legacy of the Pan Am Games. Authorities also promise to hand over the apartments in the athletes village to families after the event as permanent housing.___AP sports: https://apnews.com/sports。

B | 8月25日，香港《亚洲时报》在一篇文章中就此进行了深入分析，指出了鹰击-20的扩展意味着海战游戏规则正在悄然换挡，昔日美军航母时代的海上主宰地位正面临挑战。    中国的鹰击-20导弹，被誉为“世界上性能最强的反舰导弹”，火力与速度的结合使它成为美军不可小觑的对手。其巡航速度超过6马赫，末端可达10马赫，射程则高达1500至2000公里，这毫无疑问使得它在现代海战中占据了非常有利的地位。许多人惊叹于这个导弹的速度和打击能力，但更值得关注的是，它正在从少数顶尖055型万吨驱逐舰的专属武器，向数量可观的052D型驱逐舰快速扩散。        7月29日，央视频道首次公开了052D型驱逐舰发射鹰击-20的画面。这样的举动不仅意味着鹰击-20的战斗能力进一步得到验证，而且也标志着中国海军将高超音速武器的部署向更为广泛的舰队拓展。这是一个重大的转折点，以往只有10艘055型驱逐舰才能够发射这一导弹，现在，随着052D型战舰的加入，数量大幅增加，总体可达到45艘之多。    这一变化立即引起了西方军事分析家的高度警觉，他们担心这种“规模标配”的转变将大幅提高中国海军的远程打击能力。尤其是根据岛内“国防安全研究院”的分析，这种扩展使得鹰击-20的威胁范围从原来的480至520公里提升至960到1400公里，几乎覆盖了整个西太平洋。    对于以航母为核心的美国海军而言，过去几十年的海洋霸权主要依赖于一整套逻辑体系——航母负责远程投射，驱逐舰负责防空，而潜艇则承担水下猎杀的角色。但现在，中国的高超音速导弹显然正在逐渐削弱这种“距离优势”。如今的情况是，威胁已经从相对固定的岸基导弹位置逐步转向流动的海上平台。        这意味着美军必须面对一个根本性的变化：不再是简单的拦截问题，而是如何合理判断潜在威胁。

C | 在分布式海上作战的理论下，驱逐舰的分散部署虽然可以降低整体风险，但却也暴露在敌方侦察的视野之下。一旦使用主动雷达，就会被中国的侦查系统捕捉并遭受高超音速导弹的攻击。由此，美军将不得不思考一个问题：“我们得拦的是哪一艘船？”    在这一背景下，中国的鹰击-20发射平台所形成的庞大网络，使得美国军方的传统作战逻辑受到冲击。美军的指挥官们面临着前所未有的挑战：如何在复杂、多变的海战环境中实时获取情报、追踪目标并作出反应。这种“杀伤链”中的每一个环节都将直接影响战局走向。    “饱和攻击数学”。这是《亚洲时报》中提到的观点：随着越来越多的052D和055型驱逐舰具备鹰击-20的发射能力，中国在海上可以实现的反舰火力比以往任何时候都要强大。据统计，将所有能够发射鹰击-20的舰艇垂直发射单元总计，可以超过3800个。这为中国海军在西太平洋的反介入和区域拒止能力提供了极大的支持。        这一变化不仅是武器的技术升级，更是一种从“质量型威慑”向“数量型饱和攻击”的转变。这意味着，过去中国海军依赖少数高端平台的威慑能力正在转变为更大规模舰队的日常操作。

D | 这种全新的战法意味着美军的航母打击群必须重新调整战略，以适应不再安全的海洋战场。

E |     在这一愈发复杂的海洋博弈中，真正高明的威慑不是告诉对手“我一定能击沉你”，而是让对手在走进这片海域之前，就开始不断修改自己的作战计划。美国需要重新审视其海上作战策略，因为在鹰击-20和其他高超音速武器逐渐成型的背景下，其传统的海上优势正在被逐步蚕食。

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